The Inconvenient Truth About US Stock Market Valuations
The S&P 500's meteoric 25% rise since April might feel like vindication for bulls, but beneath the surface lies a dangerous cocktail of extreme concentration, unsustainable valuations, and mounting macro headwinds that spell trouble ahead. While corporate earnings remain resilient and AI infrastructure spending provides near-term support, extreme market concentration (top 10 companies = 39% of S&P 500), stretched valuations (P/E of 26.6x vs 20-year average of 16.2x), and mounting macro headwinds create conditions ripe for a significant correction.