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Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: 18A Technology, Competitive Positioning, and the Path to Foundry Leadership

Intel stands at the inflection point of its 56-year history. The 18A process node is either the foundation of a manufacturing renaissance or the final chapter of American semiconductor leadership. We break down the moat reconstruction, Panther Lake's competitive positioning against AMD/QCOM/AVGO, and the $28-$65 valuation scenarios that define this binary bet.
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Skyworks-Qorvo: The $22B RF Merger – Arb the Spread or Own the Synergy

Skyworks and Qorvo are combining in a $22B defensive merger to create the largest U.S.-based pure-play RF semiconductor company. Two ways to play it: buy QRVO for an ~11% arbitrage spread (effectively acquiring SWKS at a 15.6% discount), or buy SWKS for direct 63% ownership of a combined entity targeting $500M+ in annual synergies and 50% EPS accretion. We break down the arb math, the synergy mechanics, and why China approval is the swing factor.
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CoreWeave (CRWV): AI Neocloud Leader With Blackwell First-Mover Edge – and a Big Execution/Leverage Overhang

CoreWeave (CRWV) is an AI neocloud scaling quickly, but the stock is trading on execution and leverage, not demand. In Q3’25 it delivered $1.4B revenue (+134% YoY) and grew backlog to $55.6B, but powered-shell delivery delays pushed some revenue timing and forced a capex/growth cadence reset. Leverage remains a headline risk, and customer concentration is still meaningful, even as backlog diversification improves. We frame outcomes as Bear $50–$60 (30%) / Base $100–$125 (50%) / Bull $135–$165 (20%).
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Robinhood in a Low-Volume Market: What Slower Trading Means for HOOD and the Market

Sequentially, trading activity rolled over across almost every asset class. Equities and options saw sharp month-over-month drops, crypto cooled, and assets under custody ticked lower for the first time since February. The move was big enough to knock HOOD down ~8–9% in a day and force investors to revisit a simple question: Is this just a breather after a strong run, or a sign that retail risk appetite is structurally fading? On the numbers, November was a step down from very strong levels rather than a collapse. Year-over-year, Robinhood’s platform is still bigger and more active across most dimensions. But the business is levered to activity, not just assets, so when volumes roll over, the P&L and the stock feel it.
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The $105 Billion AI Bet: Is Oracle’s Bond Market Stress a Systemic Risk?

Oracle’s credit risk has sharply repriced, with its 5-year CDS spiking to the highest level since 2009—roughly tripling from mid-year—as investors hedge a debt-funded AI expansion with uncertain payback. Its balance sheet now resembles a leveraged AI infrastructure project, carrying about $105B in total debt and roughly $95B in U.S. bonds, making it the largest non-bank issuer in major indices; leverage is above 4× debt/EBITDA, and levered free cash flow is negative as capex surges. Rating agencies still keep Oracle investment grade but have moved outlooks to Negative, citing massive AI cloud commitments and sustained negative free cash flow. Across the AI complex, more than $200B in related bond issuance has come to market as hyperscalers and data-center operators raise capital aggressively. Systemic risk is creeping higher, but Oracle itself is viewed as a stress indicator—not a systemic trigger—in the emerging AI credit web.