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Figma: Paying $30B For An 800M-User Experiment

Figma's ChatGPT integration gives it access to 800 million users - if just 1.5% convert, that's $130-260M in new ARR reversing the deceleration that crushed the stock 57% from its August peak. At $60.94 (27.7x sales), yesterday's 7% pop priced in half the upside, leaving 23-35% to $75-82 if it works or 15-20% downside to $48-52 if it flops. Wait for pullback to $55-57 over the next month, validate at November earnings when management must show real ChatGPT user numbers, and use February's insider unlock as your entry window. For those wanting less risk, ServiceTitan trades at 10.9x sales with 32% upside and no experiments required.
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Tesla: Reality Check at $460 – Energy’s Real, Robotaxi’s Years Away

At $460 per share ($1.48 trillion market cap) trading 225x earnings, Tesla needs flawless execution across automotive margin recovery, energy scaling, and autonomous deployment simultaneously. The probability is low. Also, Tesla just raised lease prices $70/month following expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit—the first real-world test of demand elasticity without subsidies begins now.
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The Magnificent 7 vs. The AI Infrastructure Play

The Magnificent 7 are expensive, cash-burning AI believers trading at 31-40x free cash flow while promising returns that might not materialize. A better bet is the companies selling them the shovels - the AI Infrastructure Compounders 7 (AIC-7), who are generating cash today while the hyperscalers burn through $417 billion this year alone.
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UPS Options Trade: Playing the Beaten-Down Logistics Giant

With UPS crushed 42% from highs despite a 12.45 PE and 34.96% ROE, this inverted collar strategy (5 shares, Oct 24 $86C/$87P) offers a compelling risk/reward setup heading into October 23 earnings. The position capitalizes on historically low 26% IV that should expand to 35-40%, multiple breakeven scenarios at $81.40 and $91.11, and a coiled stock near 52-week lows that's moved 5-8% on recent earnings. With defined risk around $400-500 and 20% upside to analyst targets, this trade structure profits from volatility expansion alone or any significant directional move - exactly what oversold dividend aristocrats tend to deliver when everyone's given up on them.
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MU vs RMBS: The 20x Valuation Spread That’s Begging to Be Traded

Here's what the market is telling us: Micron (MU) at $163.28 trades at 29.6x earnings while Rambus (RMBS) at $103.74 commands 49.1x. That's a 20-turn premium for RMBS, pricing it like a hypergrowth SaaS company when it's actually a semiconductor IP licensor riding the same memory cycle as Micron. One company owns the fabs and makes the actual memory. The other makes interface chips and collects royalties. The market's paying 66% more in P/E terms for the latter. This is a dislocation worth exploiting.