11 Reports

NVDA

Investology > Sector Atlas > Information Technology > AI Platforms & Infrastructure > NVDA
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NVIDIA Buybacks: A Frank Assessment of Value, Signal, and Risk

NVIDIA’s buybacks do create shareholder value — just not in the dramatic, thesis-driving way some bulls think, nor in the self-destructive way critics like Michael Burry argue. The repurchase program works because it: Offsets very large SBC issuance, Provides real share-count shrink, Adds ~1% EPS uplift versus a no-buyback world, And acts as downside liquidity support. But the program is not the engine of NVIDIA’s stock performance. The stock trades on AI data-center earnings, TSMC/HBM/CoWoS supply, hyperscaler capex, and macro positioning, not on the authorization size.
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The Real Question Isn’t “GOOGL’s TPU vs NVDA’s GPU” – It’s Where Each Wins

NVIDIA and Google are winning in different lanes of the AI stack: Blackwell GB300/NVL72 still dominates frontier training and CUDA-heavy workloads, while Google’s TPU v7 “Ironwood” fabric is emerging as the better choice for large-scale, cost-sensitive LLM inference, often at meaningfully lower cost per token. The likely end state is a hybrid world - GPUs for cutting-edge training, TPUs for much of production serving. This is exactly why the stocks should be viewed differently: NVIDIA is a concentrated, fairly valued bet on continued AI accelerator spend, whereas Alphabet is a more diversified, cash-rich platform (Search, YouTube, Cloud) with TPU-driven AI infrastructure upside that is not yet fully reflected in its valuation.
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The Magnificent 7 vs. The AI Infrastructure Play

The Magnificent 7 are expensive, cash-burning AI believers trading at 31-40x free cash flow while promising returns that might not materialize. A better bet is the companies selling them the shovels - the AI Infrastructure Compounders 7 (AIC-7), who are generating cash today while the hyperscalers burn through $417 billion this year alone.
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NVIDIA Earnings Q2 FY2026: Strong Execution, Full Valuation

NVIDIA delivered record Q2 FY2026 results with $46.7B revenue (+56% YoY) and 72.7% gross margins, meeting elevated expectations. While operational strength is undeniable, the stock appears fully valued at ~41x forward P/E, pricing in sustained 30%+ growth and minimal competitive erosion. The risk/reward profile is finely balanced.
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The Inconvenient Truth About US Stock Market Valuations

The S&P 500's meteoric 25% rise since April might feel like vindication for bulls, but beneath the surface lies a dangerous cocktail of extreme concentration, unsustainable valuations, and mounting macro headwinds that spell trouble ahead. While corporate earnings remain resilient and AI infrastructure spending provides near-term support, extreme market concentration (top 10 companies = 39% of S&P 500), stretched valuations (P/E of 26.6x vs 20-year average of 16.2x), and mounting macro headwinds create conditions ripe for a significant correction.
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Intel’s $10 Billion Gamble: Inside the Turnaround That Could Make or Break America’s Last Chip Giant

Intel Corporation (INTC) at $23 represents a high-stakes turnaround bet masked by public optimism but undermined by serious execution problems. Our investigation reveals yield issues far worse than disclosed, customer acquisition challenges, and a CEO potentially preparing for asset sales rather than foundry success .
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NVIDIA: The AI Empire Strikes Back (While Competitors Plot Their Revenge)

NVIDIA continues to dominate the AI revolution with the subtlety of a sledgehammer, posting Q1 FY2026 revenue of $44.1 billion (+69% YoY) while maintaining gross margins that would make luxury handbag companies jealous at 61%. But at $158 vs. our $140 fair value target, the market is pricing in perfection while AMD's MI300 series and hyperscaler custom chips make this game more competitive than ever. Meanwhile, Broadcom quietly captures 20% of AI infrastructure spend as the unsung kingmaker.
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AMD: The Chiplet Revolution Meets AI Reality Check

AMD has pulled off one of tech's greatest comeback stories, transforming from Intel's perpetual runner-up into a legitimate AI and datacenter powerhouse. But here's the thing - after climbing from $10 to $200+ in just five years, and now sitting at fresh highs near $130, the easy money has definitely been made. With the stock up ~10% since June 12th alone, we're clearly in "prove it" territory.
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Identifying AI Mirage Stocks: Companies Riding the AI Hype Without Substance

The explosive interest in artificial intelligence (AI) has transformed markets, leading many companies to aggressively market themselves as AI-driven businesses. However, beneath the excitement, many "AI Mirage Stocks" - companies that promise transformative AI capabilities without credible substance - have emerged. These firms often boast inflated valuations, questionable AI product claims, elevated insider selling, and high short interest from skeptical institutional investors.