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Coinbase (COIN): Priced for 2022, Built for 2026 – A Crypto Bear Market Playbook

Coinbase (COIN) is the dominant U.S.-regulated crypto exchange, and it has legitimately rebuilt its revenue base, but the stock is trading as if none of that happened. Down ~38% YTD and 63% from highs, the market is pricing COIN as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy in a crypto winter. We think the truth is more nuanced: the business is structurally better than 2022, but the "diversification" story has real limits the bulls undersell. We frame outcomes as Bear $90–120 (25%) / Base $180–240 (50%) / Bull $300–380 (25%).
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Amazon Q4 2025: The $200B AI Infrastructure Regime and the Hidden Profit Engines Wall Street Is Mispricing

Amazon posted $213.4B in revenue and $25B in operating income, and still got punished. The market is fixated on a penny EPS miss and a jaw-dropping capex number. We think the more interesting story is buried underneath: AWS just hit an inflection point, custom silicon quietly became a $10B+ business, and a million robots are restructuring e-commerce margins in real time.
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Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: 18A Technology, Competitive Positioning, and the Path to Foundry Leadership

Intel stands at the inflection point of its 56-year history. The 18A process node is either the foundation of a manufacturing renaissance or the final chapter of American semiconductor leadership. We break down the moat reconstruction, Panther Lake's competitive positioning against AMD/QCOM/AVGO, and the $28-$65 valuation scenarios that define this binary bet.
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Skyworks-Qorvo: The $22B RF Merger – Arb the Spread or Own the Synergy

Skyworks and Qorvo are combining in a $22B defensive merger to create the largest U.S.-based pure-play RF semiconductor company. Two ways to play it: buy QRVO for an ~11% arbitrage spread (effectively acquiring SWKS at a 15.6% discount), or buy SWKS for direct 63% ownership of a combined entity targeting $500M+ in annual synergies and 50% EPS accretion. We break down the arb math, the synergy mechanics, and why China approval is the swing factor.
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Alphabet in 2026: Full-Stack AI Engine, Heavy-Duty Capex

At around $314 per share (~$3.8T market cap, ~24x forward P/E), Alphabet is being priced as a durable AI platform, not a cheap “value tech” name. The question is whether Gemini 3, TPUs, and Cloud can grow into that valuation without margins getting crushed by the capex bill. GOOGL is a high-quality AI compounder with a real moat and real cash flow, but now firmly in “execution and capital-discipline” territory. Upside is still attractive if AI monetization scales as planned; downside shows up if AI Mode erodes Search economics or if capex outruns revenue.