Investology
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The Real Question Isn’t “GOOGL’s TPU vs NVDA’s GPU” – It’s Where Each Wins

NVIDIA and Google are winning in different lanes of the AI stack: Blackwell GB300/NVL72 still dominates frontier training and CUDA-heavy workloads, while Google’s TPU v7 “Ironwood” fabric is emerging as the better choice for large-scale, cost-sensitive LLM inference, often at meaningfully lower cost per token. The likely end state is a hybrid world - GPUs for cutting-edge training, TPUs for much of production serving. This is exactly why the stocks should be viewed differently: NVIDIA is a concentrated, fairly valued bet on continued AI accelerator spend, whereas Alphabet is a more diversified, cash-rich platform (Search, YouTube, Cloud) with TPU-driven AI infrastructure upside that is not yet fully reflected in its valuation.
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Lumentum (LITE): InP Inside the AI Optical Super-Cycle – but Priced Like It Already Won

Lumentum is a high-quality, vertically integrated indium-phosphide (InP) optics supplier sitting directly in the slipstream of the AI data-center build-out, with record revenue, rapidly recovering margins, and a second growth engine emerging in optical circuit switching. The business is strong, strategically relevant, and executing well - but the stock, up ~240% YTD and trading near 195x trailing earnings, already reflects a lot of optimism. Great business, stretched valuation: accumulate on dips and use hedges or smaller sizing to keep the upside while managing risk.
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2025–26 M&A Target Playbook: U.S. & Canadian Takeover Candidates

The most credible 2025–26 takeover candidates are Atkore, Cascades, Box, Brookdale Senior Living, Ardagh Metal Packaging, and GitLab - all trading below strategic value with clear synergy potential and active buyer universes. Atkore and Cascades lead on probability given strong cash flow and footprint synergies, while Box and GitLab fit cleanly into larger software platforms, and Brookdale offers REIT-backed roll-up economics.
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M&A Target Analysis: Tier 1 Acquisition Opportunities with Probability-Weighted Valuations

This report outlines four high-probability M&A archetypes - UK generics, AI-ready data centers, healthcare workflow platforms, and packaging carve-outs - each modeled with realistic valuation math, synergy capture, and regulatory adjustments. Together they show where strategic and private-equity buyers are most likely to hunt next, how much they can justify paying, and why public markets often underprice these assets before a bid.
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Apple (AAPL) Options Trade: Exploiting Post-Earnings IV Compression and the iPhone 17 Catalyst

Wait until after tomorrow's (Oct 30) earnings, then enter a ratio call spread (buy 2x Dec $260 calls, sell 3x Dec $270 calls) for ~$400 credit when IV crushes to 23-24%. The edge: IV at 34th percentile will likely expand back toward its median (28-30%), generating 50-80% returns with max profit at $270. Downside capped at $256, but unlimited upside risk above $283 requires active management. Massive institutional call wall at 280-320 validates the bullish thesis on iPhone 17 strength and China recovery.
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Credo Technology (CRDO): AI Connectivity Play at Premium Valuation

Credo Technology has emerged as a leading provider of high-speed connectivity solutions for AI infrastructure, delivering explosive 274% year-over-year revenue growth driven by Active Electrical Cable (AEC) shipments to hyperscalers. However, the stock trades at a substantial premium, approximately 40-44x trailing sales, pricing in continued flawless execution amid intensifying competition and potential technology disruption.
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Figma: Paying $30B For An 800M-User Experiment

Figma's ChatGPT integration gives it access to 800 million users - if just 1.5% convert, that's $130-260M in new ARR reversing the deceleration that crushed the stock 57% from its August peak. At $60.94 (27.7x sales), yesterday's 7% pop priced in half the upside, leaving 23-35% to $75-82 if it works or 15-20% downside to $48-52 if it flops. Wait for pullback to $55-57 over the next month, validate at November earnings when management must show real ChatGPT user numbers, and use February's insider unlock as your entry window. For those wanting less risk, ServiceTitan trades at 10.9x sales with 32% upside and no experiments required.
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Tesla: Reality Check at $460 – Energy’s Real, Robotaxi’s Years Away

At $460 per share ($1.48 trillion market cap) trading 225x earnings, Tesla needs flawless execution across automotive margin recovery, energy scaling, and autonomous deployment simultaneously. The probability is low. Also, Tesla just raised lease prices $70/month following expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit—the first real-world test of demand elasticity without subsidies begins now.
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The Magnificent 7 vs. The AI Infrastructure Play

The Magnificent 7 are expensive, cash-burning AI believers trading at 31-40x free cash flow while promising returns that might not materialize. A better bet is the companies selling them the shovels - the AI Infrastructure Compounders 7 (AIC-7), who are generating cash today while the hyperscalers burn through $417 billion this year alone.
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UPS Options Trade: Playing the Beaten-Down Logistics Giant

With UPS crushed 42% from highs despite a 12.45 PE and 34.96% ROE, this inverted collar strategy (5 shares, Oct 24 $86C/$87P) offers a compelling risk/reward setup heading into October 23 earnings. The position capitalizes on historically low 26% IV that should expand to 35-40%, multiple breakeven scenarios at $81.40 and $91.11, and a coiled stock near 52-week lows that's moved 5-8% on recent earnings. With defined risk around $400-500 and 20% upside to analyst targets, this trade structure profits from volatility expansion alone or any significant directional move - exactly what oversold dividend aristocrats tend to deliver when everyone's given up on them.