3 Reports

SPY

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When Safe Assets Outperform Risk: The 2025 Portfolio Playbook

For the first time since Y2K, the math has flipped. The 10-year Treasury (~4.23%) now outyields the S&P 500's forward earnings yield (4.15%), creating a negative equity risk premium, a phenomenon we've seen exactly twice in modern history, both preceding significant market resets. But here's the kicker: inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are paying 1.94% real while equity dividends deliver -1.1% after inflation. Translation: The "risk-free" rate isn't just competitive, it's winning.
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The Inconvenient Truth About US Stock Market Valuations

The S&P 500's meteoric 25% rise since April might feel like vindication for bulls, but beneath the surface lies a dangerous cocktail of extreme concentration, unsustainable valuations, and mounting macro headwinds that spell trouble ahead. While corporate earnings remain resilient and AI infrastructure spending provides near-term support, extreme market concentration (top 10 companies = 39% of S&P 500), stretched valuations (P/E of 26.6x vs 20-year average of 16.2x), and mounting macro headwinds create conditions ripe for a significant correction.
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U.S. Bond Trends: Economic Outlook (2025–2026) & Stock Market Impact

Treasury auctions reflect cautious investor sentiment, and equity valuations appear historically stretched relative to bonds, with equity risk premiums at near-zero levels. Markets currently assign a 45% probability to a soft landing, but recession risk remains significant at 40%. Investors should pivot defensively, favoring high-quality bonds, select financials, and defensive sectors, closely monitoring yield curves, credit spreads, and inflation signals.