Application Software & SaaS

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10 Active research reports

The $105 Billion AI Bet: Is Oracle’s Bond Market Stress a Systemic Risk?

Oracle’s credit risk has sharply repriced, with its 5-year CDS spiking to the highest level since 2009—roughly tripling from mid-year—as investors hedge a debt-funded AI expansion with uncertain payback. Its balance sheet now resembles a leveraged AI infrastructure project, carrying about $105B in total debt and roughly $95B in U.S. bonds, making it the largest non-bank issuer in major indices; leverage is above 4× debt/EBITDA, and levered free cash flow is negative as capex surges. Rating agencies still keep Oracle investment grade but have moved outlooks to Negative, citing massive AI cloud commitments and sustained negative free cash flow. Across the AI complex, more than $200B in related bond issuance has come to market as hyperscalers and data-center operators raise capital aggressively. Systemic risk is creeping higher, but Oracle itself is viewed as a stress indicator—not a systemic trigger—in the emerging AI credit web.

Salesforce After Q3 FY26 Earnings: High-Margin AI Platform, Solid Growth

Salesforce delivered a quarter that was operationally excellent but not growth-explosive: Revenue around $10.3B, growing high single digits year-on-year. Non-GAAP operating margin in the mid-30s, at or near record levels. Free cash flow above $2B for the quarter, with healthy double-digit growth. AI stack (Agentforce, Data Cloud, Einstein) now represents meaningful, recurring ARR, scaling quickly off a small base. Guidance frames high-single-digit to low-double-digit top-line growth with mid-30s non-GAAP margin for the full year. The equity story is shifting from “hyper-growth CRM pioneer” to “AI-enhanced, cash-rich enterprise platform compounder.”

Figma: Paying $30B For An 800M-User Experiment

Figma's ChatGPT integration gives it access to 800 million users - if just 1.5% convert, that's $130-260M in new ARR reversing the deceleration that crushed the stock 57% from its August peak. At $60.94 (27.7x sales), yesterday's 7% pop priced in half the upside, leaving 23-35% to $75-82 if it works or 15-20% downside to $48-52 if it flops. Wait for pullback to $55-57 over the next month, validate at November earnings when management must show real ChatGPT user numbers, and use February's insider unlock as your entry window. For those wanting less risk, ServiceTitan trades at 10.9x sales with 32% upside and no experiments required.

AppLovin (APP) at $645: Extreme Valuation Demands Immediate Risk Management

AppLovin's current valuation metrics paint a clear picture of extreme overvaluation: The P/E ratio of 85-94x stands out as one of the highest in the technology sector. Even high-growth Trade Desk trades at 65x. The PEG ratio of 4.66 is particularly concerning. Traditional valuation theory suggests anything above 2.0 indicates overvaluation. This metric suggests the market is paying nearly 5x for each unit of growth, an unsustainable premium. This premium pricing requires extraordinary execution just to maintain current levels.

Snowflake: The Data Cloud’s AI Metamorphosis

Snowflake's transformation from cloud data warehouse to AI platform is happening faster than most investors realize. With 5,200+ customers actively using AI weekly and Cortex driving 15-35% customer expansion, the company has moved beyond PowerPoint promises to actual revenue impact. But success breeds competition - Databricks is fighting back with 50/50 win rates in direct battles, hyperscalers are commoditizing data platforms, and customer FinOps teams are starting to scrutinize consumption-based pricing.

MicroStrategy: The $113B Bitcoin House of Cards

MicroStrategy (now "Strategy") has essentially become a leveraged Bitcoin ETF disguised as a software company. While this strategy has delivered astronomical returns (3,130% since 2020), the company now trades at dangerous premium levels with mounting legal challenges, declining software revenues, and extreme volatility risk that would make a crypto trader blush.

Adobe Inc – Undervalued & Overperforming, Riding AI into Record Results & Rosy Outlooks

Adobe is fundamentally reshaping the creative economy with AI at the core of its platform, not as a gimmick, but as a monetizable, enterprise-grade engine. While the market questions AI payoffs, Adobe is already delivering: over $125M in AI-first ARR, 24B assets generated via Firefly, and deep integrations that boost stickiness and pricing power.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) – Navigating Strategic Growth & AI Leadership

Elastic continues to reinforce its dominance in the enterprise search and GenAI markets through significant cloud revenue growth, impactful partnerships, and consistent innovation. Fiscal 2025 marked solid operational achievements, though cautious FY2026 guidance reflects prudent management amid macroeconomic uncertainties. Elastic’s technical strengths and strategic partnerships effectively mitigate competitive pressures, especially in consumer-centric segments.

Unity Technologies (U): Recalibrating Amid Monetization and Innovation Challenges

Unity Technologies (U) is a leading gaming engine provider renowned for its intuitive usability, versatility, and extensive community support. Specific recent restructurings, including the divestiture of digital twin and professional service divisions to Capgemini, have refocused Unity on its core gaming engine. However, monetization challenges and talent retention remain critical concerns.

ZoomInfo (ZI) – Can the B2B Data King Hold Its Crown

ZoomInfo continues to lead the business-to-business (B2B) data intelligence landscape, prized for its data accuracy, Salesforce integration, and sales development representative (SDR) workflow tools. However, competitors are catching up fast, especially in user experience and pricing, while recent declines in mobile number accuracy threaten ZoomInfo’s most important value proposition.