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Options Playbook 2
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Figma: Paying $30B For An 800M-User Experiment

Figma's ChatGPT integration gives it access to 800 million users - if just 1.5% convert, that's $130-260M in new ARR reversing the deceleration that crushed the stock 57% from its August peak. At $60.94 (27.7x sales), yesterday's 7% pop priced in half the upside, leaving 23-35% to $75-82 if it works or 15-20% downside to $48-52 if it flops. Wait for pullback to $55-57 over the next month, validate at November earnings when management must show real ChatGPT user numbers, and use February's insider unlock as your entry window. For those wanting less risk, ServiceTitan trades at 10.9x sales with 32% upside and no experiments required.
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UPS Options Trade: Playing the Beaten-Down Logistics Giant

With UPS crushed 42% from highs despite a 12.45 PE and 34.96% ROE, this inverted collar strategy (5 shares, Oct 24 $86C/$87P) offers a compelling risk/reward setup heading into October 23 earnings. The position capitalizes on historically low 26% IV that should expand to 35-40%, multiple breakeven scenarios at $81.40 and $91.11, and a coiled stock near 52-week lows that's moved 5-8% on recent earnings. With defined risk around $400-500 and 20% upside to analyst targets, this trade structure profits from volatility expansion alone or any significant directional move - exactly what oversold dividend aristocrats tend to deliver when everyone's given up on them.
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AppLovin (APP) at $645: Extreme Valuation Demands Immediate Risk Management

AppLovin's current valuation metrics paint a clear picture of extreme overvaluation: The P/E ratio of 85-94x stands out as one of the highest in the technology sector. Even high-growth Trade Desk trades at 65x. The PEG ratio of 4.66 is particularly concerning. Traditional valuation theory suggests anything above 2.0 indicates overvaluation. This metric suggests the market is paying nearly 5x for each unit of growth, an unsustainable premium. This premium pricing requires extraordinary execution just to maintain current levels.
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MU vs RMBS: The 20x Valuation Spread That’s Begging to Be Traded

Here's what the market is telling us: Micron (MU) at $163.28 trades at 29.6x earnings while Rambus (RMBS) at $103.74 commands 49.1x. That's a 20-turn premium for RMBS, pricing it like a hypergrowth SaaS company when it's actually a semiconductor IP licensor riding the same memory cycle as Micron. One company owns the fabs and makes the actual memory. The other makes interface chips and collects royalties. The market's paying 66% more in P/E terms for the latter. This is a dislocation worth exploiting.
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STX vs WDC: The HAMR Trade That’s Hiding in Plain Sight

Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) are fighting for dominance in what might be the last great technology transition in HDDs: Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording (HAMR). One company has a two-year lead and is already shipping to hyperscalers. The other is printing money with current-gen tech while scrambling to catch up. This isn’t a market-neutral academic exercise. This is a conviction trade on relative execution with defined risk parameters.
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The $2 Trillion Rotation: A Playbook for the Next Market Regime

The biggest money move in history is happening right now. $630 billion shifted in H1 2025 alone – that's tracking toward $2.1 trillion annually. The plot: Institutions dumped U.S. tech (-$130bn annual pace) and piled into European stocks (+$400bn pace), money markets ($1 trillion pace), and small-caps (+$125bn pace). Meanwhile, retail still holds 70% of mega-cap tech bags.
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Fixed Income ETF Portfolio Q3 2025: A Strategic Response to Fed Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve is expected to deliver 50-75 basis points of cuts through the remainder of 2025, creating a more measured easing cycle than previously anticipated. This portfolio targets a 4.9% SEC yield while maintaining effective duration below 5 years and limiting maximum drawdown to acceptable levels for the adjusted rate environment.
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The Crypto-Brokerage Convergence Trade: COIN vs HOOD in 2025

Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) are converging on the same endgame—becoming the everything exchange for the next generation—but they're coming from opposite directions. And right now, the market has this completely backwards. COIN trades at 32x forward EBITDA while HOOD commands a princely 53x. That's a 40% valuation gap that makes zero sense when you dig into the fundamentals. We're looking at a masterclass in market inefficiency.
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Reddit (RDDT): The Front Page of Options

Reddit isn't your typical social media play anymore – it's morphing into an AI-powered advertising juggernaut with actual profits, boasting 78% YoY revenue growth, 33% EBITDA margins, and a 96 Relative Strength Rating that screams institutional quality wrapped in meme-stock clothing. With the stock riding above all major moving averages and smart money deploying sophisticated collar strategies, the options market is serving up a full menu of strategies: from cash-secured puts for accumulation on dips to zero-cost collars for hedging existing gains to diagonal spreads for trend-riding with theta decay, and beyond.
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When Safe Assets Outperform Risk: The 2025 Portfolio Playbook

For the first time since Y2K, the math has flipped. The 10-year Treasury (~4.23%) now outyields the S&P 500's forward earnings yield (4.15%), creating a negative equity risk premium, a phenomenon we've seen exactly twice in modern history, both preceding significant market resets. But here's the kicker: inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) are paying 1.94% real while equity dividends deliver -1.1% after inflation. Translation: The "risk-free" rate isn't just competitive, it's winning.