Investology > Deep Dive

Deep Dive

Available Reports
17 Active research reports

OTHER TRACKS

Sector Atlas 59
Playbook 25
Investigative Analysis 17
Macro View 12
Byte 10
Categories

Intel’s Make-or-Break Moment: 18A Technology, Competitive Positioning, and the Path to Foundry Leadership

Intel stands at the inflection point of its 56-year history. The 18A process node is either the foundation of a manufacturing renaissance or the final chapter of American semiconductor leadership. We break down the moat reconstruction, Panther Lake's competitive positioning against AMD/QCOM/AVGO, and the $28-$65 valuation scenarios that define this binary bet.
Categories

CoreWeave (CRWV): AI Neocloud Leader With Blackwell First-Mover Edge – and a Big Execution/Leverage Overhang

CoreWeave (CRWV) is an AI neocloud scaling quickly, but the stock is trading on execution and leverage, not demand. In Q3’25 it delivered $1.4B revenue (+134% YoY) and grew backlog to $55.6B, but powered-shell delivery delays pushed some revenue timing and forced a capex/growth cadence reset. Leverage remains a headline risk, and customer concentration is still meaningful, even as backlog diversification improves. We frame outcomes as Bear $50–$60 (30%) / Base $100–$125 (50%) / Bull $135–$165 (20%).
Categories

Alphabet in 2026: Full-Stack AI Engine, Heavy-Duty Capex

At around $314 per share (~$3.8T market cap, ~24x forward P/E), Alphabet is being priced as a durable AI platform, not a cheap “value tech” name. The question is whether Gemini 3, TPUs, and Cloud can grow into that valuation without margins getting crushed by the capex bill. GOOGL is a high-quality AI compounder with a real moat and real cash flow, but now firmly in “execution and capital-discipline” territory. Upside is still attractive if AI monetization scales as planned; downside shows up if AI Mode erodes Search economics or if capex outruns revenue.
Categories

Salesforce After Q3 FY26 Earnings: High-Margin AI Platform, Solid Growth

Salesforce delivered a quarter that was operationally excellent but not growth-explosive: Revenue around $10.3B, growing high single digits year-on-year. Non-GAAP operating margin in the mid-30s, at or near record levels. Free cash flow above $2B for the quarter, with healthy double-digit growth. AI stack (Agentforce, Data Cloud, Einstein) now represents meaningful, recurring ARR, scaling quickly off a small base. Guidance frames high-single-digit to low-double-digit top-line growth with mid-30s non-GAAP margin for the full year. The equity story is shifting from “hyper-growth CRM pioneer” to “AI-enhanced, cash-rich enterprise platform compounder.”
Categories

Lumentum (LITE): InP Inside the AI Optical Super-Cycle – but Priced Like It Already Won

  • Posted byby Marko N.
  • 7 min
Lumentum is a high-quality, vertically integrated indium-phosphide (InP) optics supplier sitting directly in the slipstream of the AI data-center build-out, with record revenue, rapidly recovering margins, and a second growth engine emerging in optical circuit switching. The business is strong, strategically relevant, and executing well - but the stock, up ~240% YTD and trading near 195x trailing earnings, already reflects a lot of optimism. Great business, stretched valuation: accumulate on dips and use hedges or smaller sizing to keep the upside while managing risk.
Categories

M&A Target Analysis: Tier 1 Acquisition Opportunities with Probability-Weighted Valuations

  • Posted byby Marko N.
  • 6 min
This report outlines four high-probability M&A archetypes - UK generics, AI-ready data centers, healthcare workflow platforms, and packaging carve-outs - each modeled with realistic valuation math, synergy capture, and regulatory adjustments. Together they show where strategic and private-equity buyers are most likely to hunt next, how much they can justify paying, and why public markets often underprice these assets before a bid.
Categories

Credo Technology (CRDO): AI Connectivity Play at Premium Valuation

Credo Technology has emerged as a leading provider of high-speed connectivity solutions for AI infrastructure, delivering explosive 274% year-over-year revenue growth driven by Active Electrical Cable (AEC) shipments to hyperscalers. However, the stock trades at a substantial premium, approximately 40-44x trailing sales, pricing in continued flawless execution amid intensifying competition and potential technology disruption.
Categories

Tesla: Reality Check at $460 – Energy’s Real, Robotaxi’s Years Away

At $460 per share ($1.48 trillion market cap) trading 225x earnings, Tesla needs flawless execution across automotive margin recovery, energy scaling, and autonomous deployment simultaneously. The probability is low. Also, Tesla just raised lease prices $70/month following expiration of the $7,500 federal tax credit—the first real-world test of demand elasticity without subsidies begins now.
Categories

AppLovin (APP) at $645: Extreme Valuation Demands Immediate Risk Management

AppLovin's current valuation metrics paint a clear picture of extreme overvaluation: The P/E ratio of 85-94x stands out as one of the highest in the technology sector. Even high-growth Trade Desk trades at 65x. The PEG ratio of 4.66 is particularly concerning. Traditional valuation theory suggests anything above 2.0 indicates overvaluation. This metric suggests the market is paying nearly 5x for each unit of growth, an unsustainable premium. This premium pricing requires extraordinary execution just to maintain current levels.
Categories

NVIDIA Earnings Q2 FY2026: Strong Execution, Full Valuation

NVIDIA delivered record Q2 FY2026 results with $46.7B revenue (+56% YoY) and 72.7% gross margins, meeting elevated expectations. While operational strength is undeniable, the stock appears fully valued at ~41x forward P/E, pricing in sustained 30%+ growth and minimal competitive erosion. The risk/reward profile is finely balanced.