U.S. Bond Trends: Economic Outlook (2025–2026) & Stock Market Impact
Treasury auctions reflect cautious investor sentiment, and equity valuations appear historically stretched relative to bonds, with equity risk premiums at near-zero levels. Markets currently assign a 45% probability to a soft landing, but recession risk remains significant at 40%. Investors should pivot defensively, favoring high-quality bonds, select financials, and defensive sectors, closely monitoring yield curves, credit spreads, and inflation signals.
